Neurofilaments as biomarkers in neurological disorders - towards clinical application.

Neurofilament proteins have been validated as specific body fluid biomarkers of neuro-axonal injury. The advent of highly sensitive analytical platforms that enable reliable quantification of neurofilaments in blood samples and simplify longitudinal follow-up has paved the way for the development of neurofilaments as a biomarker in clinical practice. Potential applications include assessment of disease activity, monitoring of treatment responses, and determining prognosis in many acute and chronic neurological disorders as well as their use as an outcome measure in trials of novel therapies. Progress has now moved the measurement of neurofilaments to the doorstep of routine clinical practice for the evaluation of individuals. In this Review, we first outline current knowledge on the structure and function of neurofilaments. We then discuss analytical and statistical approaches and challenges in determining neurofilament levels in different clinical contexts and assess the implications of neurofilament light chain (NfL) levels in normal ageing and the confounding factors that need to be considered when interpreting NfL measures. In addition, we summarize the current value and potential clinical applications of neurofilaments as a biomarker of neuro-axonal damage in a range of neurological disorders, including multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer disease, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, stroke and cerebrovascular disease, traumatic brain injury, and Parkinson disease. We also consider the steps needed to complete the translation of neurofilaments from the laboratory to the management of neurological diseases in clinical practice.

Therapeutic lag: Is treatment effect delayed in progressive MS?

BACKGROUND: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) often revealed non-significant treatment effects on disability progression. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether the failure to detect a significant benefit from treatment may be motivated by a delay in treatment effect, possibly related to baseline characteristics. METHODS: We re-analyzed data from two RCTs testing interferon-beta and glatiramer-acetate versus placebo in progressive MS with no significant effect on EDSS progression. We first designed a time-dependent Cox model with no treatment effect up to time = t0, and constant hazard ratio (HR) after time = t0. We selected the best-fitting t0 from 0 (standard Cox model) to 2.5 years. Furthermore, we modeled the delay as a function of baseline EDSS and fitted the resulting Cox model to the merged dataset. RESULTS: The time-dependent Cox model revealed a significant benefit of treatment delayed by t0 = 2.5 years for the SPECTRIMS study (HR = 0.65 (0.43-0.98), p = 0.041), and delayed by t0 = 2 years for the PROMISE study (HR = 0.65, (0.42-0.99), p = 0.044). In the merged dataset, the HR for the EDSS-dependent delayed effect was 0.68 (0.56, 0.82), p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: The assumption of a delayed treatment effect improved the fit to the data of the two examined RCTs, uncovering a significant, although shifted, benefit of treatment.

Impact of COVID-19 on pregnancy and fetal outcomes in women with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In the general population, maternal COVID-19 is associated with worse maternal and fetal outcomes. Two previous studies have assessed COVID-19 clinical outcomes in pregnant women with multiple sclerosis (MS), but there are no data about maternal and fetal outcomes. OBJECTIVES: In this multicenter study, we aimed to assess maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnant women with MS and COVID-19 infection. METHODS: We recruited pregnant patients with MS who contracted COVID-19 and were followed up in Italian and Turkish Centers, during 2020-2022. A control group was extracted from a previous Italian cohort. Associations between group (COVID-19 or healthy patients) and clinical outcomes (maternal complications, fetal malformations, and spontaneous abortion) were investigated with a weighted logistic regression where propensity score-based inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach was applied for adjusting for difference in baseline confounders. RESULTS: In the multivariable analysis, COVID-19 during pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of maternal complications (odd ratio (OR) = 2.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.32-3.48; p = 0.002), while it was not associated with higher risk of spontaneous abortion and fetal malformations. CONCLUSION: Our data indicate that COVID-19 during pregnancy increases the risk of maternal complications, while it seems to have no significant impact on fetal outcomes.

Therapeutic choices and disease activity after 2 years of treatment with cladribine: An Italian multicenter study (CladStop).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Cladribine tablets, a purine analogue antimetabolite, offer a unique treatment regimen, involving short courses at the start of the first and second year, with no further treatment needed in years 3 and 4. However, comprehensive evidence regarding patient outcomes beyond the initial 24 months of cladribine treatment is limited. METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter study enrolled 204 patients with multiple sclerosis who had completed the 2-year course of cladribine treatment. The primary outcomes were therapeutic choices and clinical disease activity assessed by annualized relapse rate after the 2-year treatment course. RESULTS: A total of 204 patients were enrolled; most patients (75.4%) did not initiate new treatments in the 12 months postcladribine. The study found a significant reduction in annualized relapse rate at the 12-month follow-up after cladribine completion compared to the year prior to starting therapy (0.07 ± 0.25 vs. 0.82 ± 0.80, p < 0.001). Furthermore, patients with relapses during cladribine treatment were more likely to start new therapies, whereas older patients were less likely. The safety profile of cladribine was favorable, with lymphopenia being the primary registered adverse event. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides insights into therapeutic choices and disease activity following cladribine treatment. It highlights cladribine's effectiveness in reducing relapse rates and disability progression, reaffirming its favorable safety profile. Real-world data, aligned with previous reports, draw attention to ocrelizumab and natalizumab as common choices after cladribine. However, larger, prospective studies for validation and a more comprehensive understanding of cladribine's long-term impact are necessary.

Biometry extraction and probabilistic anatomical atlas of the anterior Visual Pathway using dedicated high-resolution 3-D MRI.

Anterior Visual Pathway (aVP) damage may be linked to diverse inflammatory, degenerative and/or vascular conditions. Currently however, a standardized methodological framework for extracting MRI biomarkers of the aVP is not available. We used high-resolution, 3-D MRI data to generate a probabilistic anatomical atlas of the normal aVP and its intraorbital (iOrb), intracanalicular (iCan), intracranial (iCran), optic chiasm (OC), and tract (OT) subdivisions. We acquired 0.6 mm3 steady-state free-precession images from 24 healthy participants using a 3 T scanner. aVP masks were obtained by manual segmentation of each aVP subdivision. Mask straightening and normalization with cross-sectional area (CSA) preservation were obtained using scripts developed in-house. A probabilistic atlas ("aVP-24") was generated by averaging left and right sides of all subjects. Leave-one-out cross-validation with respect to interindividual variability was performed employing the Dice Similarity Index (DSI). Spatially normalized representations of the aVP subdivisions were generated. Overlapping CSA values before and after normalization demonstrate preservation of the aVP cross-section. Volume, length, CSA, and ellipticity index (ε) biometrics were extracted. The aVP-24 morphology followed previous descriptions from the gross anatomy. Atlas spatial validation DSI scores of 0.85 in 50% and 0.77 in 95% of participants indicated good generalizability across the subjects. The proposed MRI standardization framework allows for previously unavailable, geometrically unbiased biometric data of the entire aVP and provides the base for future spatial-resolved, group-level investigations.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry.

BACKGROUND: To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon ß-1a (IFN) using observational data. METHODS: We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression. RESULTS: A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51). CONCLUSIONS: By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Diagnostic Performance of Cortical Lesions and the Central Vein Sign in Multiple Sclerosis.

Importance: Multiple sclerosis (MS) misdiagnosis remains an important issue in clinical practice. Objective: To quantify the performance of cortical lesions (CLs) and central vein sign (CVS) in distinguishing MS from other conditions showing brain lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional multicenter study, with clinical and MRI data acquired between January 2010 and May 2020. Centralized MRI analysis was conducted between July 2020 and December 2022 by 2 raters blinded to participants' diagnosis. Participants were recruited from 14 European centers and from a multicenter pan-European cohort. Eligible participants had a diagnosis of MS, clinically isolated syndrome (CIS), or non-MS conditions; availability of a brain 3-T MRI scan with at least 1 sequence suitable for CL and CVS assessment; presence of T2-hyperintense white matter lesions (WMLs). A total of 1051 individuals were included with either MS/CIS (n = 599; 386 [64.4%] female; mean [SD] age, 41.5 [12.3] years) or non-MS conditions (including other neuroinflammatory disorders, cerebrovascular disease, migraine, and incidental WMLs in healthy control individuals; n = 452; 302 [66.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 49.2 [14.5] years). Five individuals were excluded due to missing clinical or demographic information (n = 3) or unclear diagnosis (n = 2). Exposures: MS/CIS vs non-MS conditions. Main Outcomes and Measures: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to explore the diagnostic performance of CLs and the CVS in isolation and in combination; sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated for various cutoffs. The diagnostic importance of CLs and CVS compared to conventional MRI features (ie, presence of infratentorial, periventricular, and juxtacortical WMLs) was ranked with a random forest model. Results: The presence of CLs and the previously proposed 40% CVS rule had a sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for MS of 59.0% (95% CI, 55.1-62.8), 93.6% (95% CI, 91.4-95.6), and 73.9% (95% CI, 71.6-76.3) and 78.7% (95% CI, 75.5-82.0), 86.0% (95% CI, 82.1-89.5), and 81.5% (95% CI, 78.9-83.7), respectively. The diagnostic performance of the CVS (AUC, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.86-0.91]) was superior to that of CLs (AUC, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.75-0.80]; P < .001), and was increased when combining the 2 imaging markers (AUC, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.90-0.94]; P = .04); in the random forest model, both CVS and CLs outperformed the presence of infratentorial, periventricular, and juxtacortical WMLs in supporting MS differential diagnosis. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings in this study suggest that CVS and CLs may be valuable tools to increase the accuracy of MS diagnosis.

Harmonizing Definitions for Progression Independent of Relapse Activity in Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Review.

Importance: Emerging evidence suggests that progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is a substantial contributor to long-term disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). To date, there is no uniform agreed-upon definition of PIRA, limiting the comparability of published studies. Objective: To summarize the current evidence about PIRA based on a systematic review, to discuss the various terminologies used in the context of PIRA, and to propose a harmonized definition for PIRA for use in clinical practice and future trials. Evidence Review: A literature search was conducted using the search terms multiple sclerosis, PIRA, progression independent of relapse activity, silent progression, and progression unrelated to relapses in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science, published between January 1990 and December 2022. Findings: Of 119 identified single records, 48 eligible studies were analyzed. PIRA was reported to occur in roughly 5% of all patients with RRMS per annum, causing at least 50% of all disability accrual events in typical RRMS. The proportion of PIRA vs relapse-associated worsening increased with age, longer disease duration, and, despite lower absolute event numbers, potent suppression of relapses by highly effective disease-modifying therapy. However, different studies used various definitions of PIRA, rendering the comparability of studies difficult. Conclusion and Relevance: PIRA is the most frequent manifestation of disability accumulation across the full spectrum of traditional MS phenotypes, including clinically isolated syndrome and early RRMS. The harmonized definition suggested here may improve the comparability of results in current and future cohorts and data sets.

Do the current MS clinical course descriptors need to change and if so how? A survey of the MS community.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The current clinical course descriptors of multiple sclerosis (MS) include a combination of clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features. Recently there has been a growing call to base these descriptors more firmly on biological mechanisms. We investigated the implications of proposing a new mechanism-driven framework for describing MS. METHODS: In a web-based survey, multiple stakeholders rated the need to change current MS clinical course descriptors, the definitions of disease course and their value in clinical practice and related topics. RESULTS: We received 502 responses across 49 countries. In all, 77% of the survey respondents supported changing the current MS clinical course descriptors. They preferred a framework that informs treatment decisions, aids the design and conduct of clinical trials, allows patients to understand their disease, and links disease mechanisms and clinical expression of disease. Clinical validation before dissemination and ease of communication to patients were rated as the most important aspects to consider when developing any new framework for describing MS. CONCLUSION: A majority of MS stakeholders agreed that the current MS clinical course descriptors need to change. Any change process will need to engage a wide range of affected stakeholders and be guided by foundational principles.

Enhancing diversity of clinical trial populations in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Demographic characteristics, social determinants of health (SDoH), health inequities, and health disparities substantially influence the general and disease-specific health outcomes of people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Participants in clinical trials do not represent all people with MS treated in practice. OBJECTIVE: To provide recommendations for enhancing diversity and inclusion in clinical trials in MS. METHODS: We held an international workshop under the Auspices of the International Advisory Committee on Clinical Trials in MS (the "Committee") to develop recommendations regarding diversity and inclusivity of participants of clinical trials in MS. Workshop attendees included members of the Committee as well as external participants. External participants were selected based on expertise in trials, SDoH, health equity and regulatory science, and diversity with respect to gender, race, ethnicity, and geography. RESULTS: Recommendations include use of diversity plans, community engagement and education, cultural competency training, biologically justified rather than templated eligibility criteria, adaptive designs that allow broadening of eligibility criteria over the course of a trial, and logistical and practical adjustments to reduce study participant burden. Investigators should report demographic and SDoH characteristics of participants. CONCLUSION: These recommendations provide sponsors and investigators with methods of improving diversity and inclusivity of clinical trial populations in MS.

Assessing heterogeneity of treatment effect in multiple sclerosis trials.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is heterogeneous with respect to outcomes, and evaluating possible heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is of high interest. HTE is non-random variation in the magnitude of a treatment effect on a clinical outcome across levels of a covariate (i.e. a patient attribute or set of attributes). Multiple statistical techniques can evaluate HTE. The simplest but most bias-prone is conventional one variable-at-a-time subgroup analysis. Recently, multivariable predictive approaches have been promoted to provide more patient-centered results, by accounting for multiple relevant attributes simultaneously. We review approaches used to estimate HTE in clinical trials of MS.

Improving the efficiency of clinical trials in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Phase 3 clinical trials for disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) have utilized a limited number of conventional designs with a high degree of success. However, these designs limit the types of questions that can be addressed, and the time and cost required. Moreover, trials involving people with progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) have been less successful. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to discuss complex innovative trial designs, intermediate and composite outcomes and to improve the efficiency of trial design in MS and broaden questions that can be addressed, particularly as applied to progressive MS. METHODS: We held an international workshop with experts in clinical trial design. RESULTS: Recommendations include increasing the use of complex innovative designs, developing biomarkers to enrich progressive MS trial populations, prioritize intermediate outcomes for further development that target therapeutic mechanisms of action other than peripherally mediated inflammation, investigate acceptability to people with MS of data linkage for studying long-term outcomes of clinical trials, use Bayesian designs to potentially reduce sample sizes required for pediatric trials, and provide sustained funding for platform trials and registries that can support pragmatic trials. CONCLUSION: Novel trial designs and further development of intermediate outcomes may improve clinical trial efficiency in MS and address novel therapeutic questions.

Enhancing involvement of people with multiple sclerosis in clinical trial design.

BACKGROUND: Although often overlooked, patient and public involvement (PPI) is vital when considering the design and delivery of complex and adaptive clinical trial designs for chronic health conditions such as multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We conducted a rapid review to assess current status of PPI in the design and conduct of clinical trials in MS over the last 5 years. We provide a case study describing PPI in the development of a platform clinical trial in progressive MS. RESULTS: We identified only eight unique clinical trials that described PPI as part of articles or protocols; nearly, all were linked with funders who encourage or mandate PPI in health research. The OCTOPUS trial was co-designed with people affected by MS. They were central to every aspect from forming part of a governance group shaping the direction and strategy, to the working groups for treatment selection, trial design and delivery. They led the PPI strategy which enabled a more accessible, acceptable and inclusive design. CONCLUSION: Active, meaningful PPI in clinical trial design increases the quality and relevance of studies and the likelihood of impact for the patient community. We offer recommendations for enhancing PPI in future MS clinical trials.

Assessing the duration of EDSS improvement after a therapy start: A novel approach applied to the long-term extension of the PRISMS study.

BACKGROUND: In a chronic and progressive disease such as multiple sclerosis (MS), the improvement on Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) can be a transient event. Therefore, estimating the prevalence of disability improvement over time, accounting both for improvement incidence and duration, is of interest. The aim of this study was to show the application of a simple estimator for the proportion of patients with sustained improvement over time using data from the long-term extension of the PRISMS trial. METHODS: A total of 534 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients from the PRISMS trial were included. Patients with a baseline EDSS of 0 were excluded. Patients were randomized to placebo (n = 178), subcutaneous interferon beta-1a (sc IFN ß-1a) 22 µg (n = 181) or sc IFN ß-1a 44 µg (n = 175). At Year 2, patients receiving placebo were re-randomized to sc IFN ß-1a 22 µg or 44 µg (delayed sc IFN ß-1a) while patients receiving sc IFN ß-1a 22 µg or 44 µg continued their initial regimen. Patients were followed up for over 7 years post-randomization. Disability improvement was defined as a 1-point decrease in EDSS from baseline confirmed at 6 months. Prevalence of improvement was estimated as difference of Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimators while the cumulative incidence of improvement was calculated using the standard KM curves. RESULTS: No significant differences in cumulative incidence of EDSS improvement at 3 years between delayed sc IFN ß-1a (20.3%) and sc IFN ß-1a 22 µg (20.8%; p = 0.49) or 44 µg (21.3%; p = 0.33). When taking duration of improvement into account, the proportion of patients showing an improved condition after 3 years was 10.1% with delayed sc IFN ß-1a, 11.3% with sc IFN ß-1a 22 µg (p = 0.17) and 15.4% with sc IFN ß-1a 44 µg (p = 0.037) that was substantially maintained over the long term. CONCLUSIONS: With the use of this new statistical methodology, it is possible to estimate the time to improvement as well as the duration of improvement, information that is better suited to describing a non-final outcome like disability improvement. In this case, early sc IFN ß-1a 44 µg initiation had a greater proportion of patients with a sustained disability improvement over a long period of follow-up as compared to patients who had initially been randomized to placebo. In contrast, no significant differences on the cumulative incidence of improvement were observed.

Adjuvant mitotane versus surveillance in low-grade, localised adrenocortical carcinoma (ADIUVO): an international, multicentre, open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial and observational study.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant treatment with mitotane is commonly used after resection of adrenocortical carcinoma; however, treatment remains controversial, particularly if risk of recurrence is not high. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of adjuvant mitotane compared with surveillance alone following complete tumour resection in patients with adrenocortical carcinoma considered to be at low to intermediate risk of recurrence. METHODS: ADIUVO was a multicentre, open-label, parallel, randomised, phase 3 trial done in 23 centres across seven countries. Patients aged 18 years or older with adrenocortical carcinoma and low to intermediate risk of recurrence (R0, stage I-III, and Ki67 ≤10%) were randomly assigned to adjuvant oral mitotane two or three times daily (the dose was adjusted by the local investigator with the target of reaching and maintaining plasma mitotane concentrations of 14-20 mg/L) for 2 years or surveillance alone. All consecutive patients at 14 study centres fulfilling the eligibility criteria of the ADIUVO trial who refused randomisation and agreed on data collection via the European Network for the Study of Adrenal Tumors adrenocortical carcinoma registry were included prospectively in the ADIUVO Observational study. The primary endpoint was recurrence-free survival, defined as the time from randomisation to the first radiological evidence of recurrence or death from any cause (whichever occurred first), assessed in all randomly assigned patients by intention to treat. Overall survival, defined as time from the date of randomisation to the date of death from any cause, was a secondary endpoint analysed by intention to treat in all randomly assigned patients. Safety was assessed in all patients who adhered to the assigned regimen, which was defined by taking at least one tablet of mitotane in the mitotane group and no mitotane at all in the surveillance group. The ADIUVO trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00777244, and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between Oct 23, 2008, and Dec 27, 2018, 45 patients were randomly assigned to mitotane and 46 to surveillance alone. Because the study was discontinued prematurely, 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival are reported instead of recurrence-free and overall survival as defined in the protocol. 5-year recurrence-free survival was 79% (95% CI 67-94) in the mitotane group and 75% (63-90) in the surveillance group (hazard ratio 0·74 [95% CI 0·30-1·85]). Two people in the mitotane group and five people in the surveillance group died, and 5-year overall survival was not significantly different (95% [95% CI 89-100] in the mitotane group and 86% [74-100] in the surveillance group). All 42 patients who received mitotane had adverse events, and eight (19%) discontinued treatment. There were no grade 4 adverse events or treatment-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant mitotane might not be indicated in patients with low-grade, localised adrenocortical carcinoma considering the relatively good prognosis of these patients, and no significant improvement in recurrence-free survival and treatment-associated toxicity in the mitotane group. However, the study was discontinued prematurely due to slow recruitment and cannot rule out an efficacy of treatment. FUNDING: AIFA, ENSAT Cancer Health F2-2010-259735 programme, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Cancer Research UK, and the French Ministry of Health.

Teriflunomide and Time to Clinical Multiple Sclerosis in Patients With Radiologically Isolated Syndrome: The TERIS Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS) represents the earliest detectable preclinical phase of multiple sclerosis (MS) punctuated by incidental magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) white matter anomalies within the central nervous system. Objective: To determine the time to onset of symptoms consistent with MS. Design, Setting, and Participants: From September 2017 to October 2022, this multicenter, double-blind, phase 3, randomized clinical trial investigated the efficacy of teriflunomide in delaying MS in individuals with RIS, with a 3-year follow-up. The setting included referral centers in France, Switzerland, and Turkey. Participants older than 18 years meeting 2009 RIS criteria were randomly assigned (1:1) to oral teriflunomide, 14 mg daily, or placebo up to week 96 or, optionally, to week 144. Interventions: Clinical, MRI, and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) were collected at baseline and yearly until week 96, with an optional third year in the allocated arm if no symptoms have occurred. Main outcomes: Primary analysis was performed in the intention-to-treat population, and safety was assessed accordingly. Secondary end points included MRI outcomes and PROs. Results: Among 124 individuals assessed for eligibility, 35 were excluded for declining to participate, not meeting inclusion criteria, or loss of follow-up. Eighty-nine participants (mean [SD] age, 37.8 [12.1] years; 63 female [70.8%]) were enrolled (placebo, 45 [50.6%]; teriflunomide, 44 [49.4%]). Eighteen participants (placebo, 9 [50.0%]; teriflunomide, 9 [50.0%]) discontinued the study, resulting in a dropout rate of 20% for adverse events (3 [16.7%]), consent withdrawal (4 [22.2%]), loss to follow-up (5 [27.8%]), voluntary withdrawal (4 [22.2%]), pregnancy (1 [5.6%]), and study termination (1 [5.6%]). The time to the first clinical event was significantly extended in the teriflunomide arm compared with placebo, in both the unadjusted (hazard ratio [HR], 0.37; 95% CI, 0.16-0.84; P = .02) and adjusted (HR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.11-0.71; P = .007) analysis. Secondary imaging end point outcomes including the comparison of the cumulative number of new or newly enlarging T2 lesions (rate ratio [RR], 0.57; 95% CI, 0.27-1.20; P = .14), new gadolinium-enhancing lesions (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.09-1.17; P = .09), and the proportion of participants with new lesions (odds ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.25-2.06; P = .54) were not significant. Conclusion and Relevance: Treatment with teriflunomide resulted in an unadjusted risk reduction of 63% and an adjusted risk reduction of 72%, relative to placebo, in preventing a first clinical demyelinating event. These data suggest a benefit to early treatment in the MS disease spectrum. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03122652.

Treatment Effect on Brain Atrophy Correlates with Treatment Effect on Cognition in Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent to which treatment effect on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived measures of brain atrophy and focal lesions can mediate, at the trial level, the treatment effect on cognitive outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We collected all published randomized clinical trials in MS lasting at least 2 years and including as end points: active MRI lesions (defined as new/enlarging T2 lesions), brain atrophy (defined as a change in brain volume between month 12 and month 24), and change in cognitive performance (assessed by the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test [PASAT]). Relative reductions were used to quantify the treatment effect on MRI markers (lesions and atrophy), whereas the standardized mean difference (Hedges g) between baseline and follow-up cognitive assessment was used to quantify the treatment effects on cognition. A linear regression, weighted for trial size, was used to assess the relationship between the treatment effects on MRI markers and cognition. RESULTS: Fourteen trials including more than 8,813 patients with MS were included in the meta-regression. Treatment effect on cognition was strongly associated with the treatment effect on brain atrophy (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.001), but was not correlated with the treatment effect on active MRI lesions (R2 = 0.16, p = 0.14). INTERPRETATION: Results reported here suggest that brain atrophy, a well-established MRI marker in MS clinical trials, can be used as a main outcome for clinical trials with drugs targeting cognitive impairment and neurodegeneration. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:925-932.

Handling related publications reporting real-world evidence in network meta-analysis: a case study in multiple sclerosis.

Aim: The presence of two or more publications that report on overlapping patient cohorts poses a challenge for quantitatively synthesizing real-world evidence (RWE) studies. Thus, we evaluated eight approaches for handling such related publications in network meta-analyses (NMA) of RWE studies. Methods: Bayesian NMAs were conducted to estimate the annualized relapse rate (ARR) of disease-modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis. The NMA explored the impact of hierarchically selecting one pivotal study from related publications versus including all of them while adjusting for correlations. Results: When selecting one pivotal study from related publications, the ARR ratios were mostly similar regardless of the pivotal study selected. When including all related publications, there were shifts in the point estimates and the statistical significance. Conclusion: An a priori hierarchy should guide the selection among related publications in NMAs of RWE. Sensitivity analyses modifying the hierarchy should be considered for networks with few or small studies.

Antibody response elicited by the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster in patients with multiple sclerosis: Who gains from it?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although two doses of COVID-19 vaccine elicited a protective humoral response in most persons with multiple sclerosis (pwMS), a significant group of them treated with immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) showed less efficient responses. METHODS: This prospective multicenter observational study evaluates differences in immune response after a third vaccine dose in pwMS. RESULTS: Four hundred seventy-three pwMS were analyzed. Compared to untreated patients, there was a 50-fold decrease (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14.3-100.0, p < 0.001) in serum SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels in those on rituximab, a 20-fold decrease (95% CI = 8.3-50.0, p < 0.001) in those on ocrelizumab, and a 2.3-fold decrease (95% CI = 1.2-4.6, p = 0.015) in those on fingolimod. As compared to the antibody levels after the second vaccine dose, patients on the anti-CD20 drugs rituximab and ocrelizumab showed a 2.3-fold lower gain (95% CI = 1.4-3.8, p = 0.001), whereas those on fingolimod showed a 1.7-fold higher gain (95% CI = 1.1-2.7, p = 0.012), compared to patients treated with other DMTs. CONCLUSIONS: All pwMS increased their serum SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels after the third vaccine dose. The mean antibody values of patients treated with ocrelizumab/rituximab remained well below the empirical "protective threshold" for risk of infection identified in the CovaXiMS study (>659 binding antibody units/mL), whereas for patients treated with fingolimod this value was significantly closer to the cutoff.

Health related quality of life in the domain of physical activity predicts confirmed disability progression in people with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of the progression phase of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is still retrospective and based on the objectivation of clinical disability accumulation. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the Patient Reported Outcomes Measures (PROMs) scores predict the occurrence of disease progression within three years of follow-up. METHODS: Observational prospective multicenter study. Stable Relapsing-Remitting MS (RRMS) patients were enrolled. At enrollment, patients completed the following PROMs: Beck Depression Inventory- II, The Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medications, Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36- Item (SF36), Fatigue Severity Scale. EDSS was assessed at enrollment and three years later. The outcome measure was defined as the occurrence of confirmed disability progression (CDP) within three years of follow-up. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were performed to study the association between the final score of each test and the outcome. RESULTS: SF36-Physical Functioning (SF36-PF) was the only independent variable associated with the outcome. The ROC curve analysis determined a score of 77.5 at SF36-PF as the cut-off point identifying patients experiencing CDP within three years of follow-up [AUC: 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56-0.75)]. CONCLUSIONS: RRMS patients scoring higher (>77.5) at SF36-PF subscale have a higher likelihood to experience CDP within the next three years.